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NightWatch 20121210

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NightWatch

For the night of 10 December 2012

North Korea: The Korean Central News Agency announced an extension of the launch window for its long range rocket until 29 December, owing to technical issues.

South Korean sources reported that the North Korean technicians found problems with the first stage engines and that a replacement first stage is being shipped from Pyongyang to the northwest launch complex.

Comment: Readers have no choice but to take at face value the limited factual information that has been reported. A few points are worth considering. The North has never before admitted technical problems in public or exposed to outside satellite surveillance the replacement of a rocket stage. The US and other space capable nations do that.

A rocket launch will occur. The precise date is a function of the pace of technical repairs and political decisions not knowable.

Egypt: For the record. Pro- and Anti-government groups are expected to demonstrate in Cairo on 11 December. The Army is expected to keep the peace, which is risible. Expect clashes.

Special Comment: Today the Office of the Director of National Intelligence posted and published a new document entitled Global Trends 2030. Attempts to download and read the document proved futile much of the day. However, many news commentators were more successful. Already that document has been cited as important for dozens of reasons.

The document is an examination of various futures 18 years in the future, 2030 having been selected for no apparent reason. There is an odd trait of intelligence analysts that makes them unable to predict great and imminent harm to US interests in the next month or two, but makes them confident about forecasts for the next 20 years.

NightWatch looked backwards to 1994, searching for those analysts who predicted what happened between 1994 and 2012. It is a cautionary tale, still under study, searching for Black Swans. More on this later, but caution is advisable.

End of NightWatch for 10 December.

NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence. Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or affiliates.

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